Labor Demand and Supply in Vietnam: The Medium to Long-Term Forecasts

Abstract

The medium to long-term demand-supply labor forecasting is the main concern of many countries, including Vietnam. The projections in this study are to provide methodologies and to analyze this forecasting in Vietnam. The procedure and method used for doing tasks of employment forecast by industry, employment forecast by industry×occupation and labor demand and supply forecast by education are Discrete Grey model (DGM), Reynold’s Averaged Simulation (RAS) and a little revised logit odd-ratio method. Since forecasting methodology itself is more important than results for this kind of Knowledge Sharing Project research, the paper explains methods and reports the results in appendices.