An evaluation method oriented to the comprehensive credibility of simulation data source based on evidence theory

Abstract

The operational effectiveness of the weapon systems is usually evaluated by the reasonable simulation results. But it is difficult to measure and evaluate the credibility of the simulation data source. An evaluation indices system of the credibility for the simulation data source is built up. A set of quantitative evaluation rules are set up based on the experts' judgments and the fuzzy expression. The credibility is evaluated from the terminal layer indices to the top ones. First, many experts are assigned to evaluate the credibility of the terminal layer indices. Then the credibility of each terminal layer indices of simulation data source is combined and synthesized into the comprehensive credibility of the whole simulation data source. An evaluation method based on the evidence theory is established to integrate above different sub-credibility of simulation data source. All the lower layer indices are required to fuse into the upper ones, and finally get the comprehensive credibility of the simulation data source. For example, the credibility of the simulation data source for the armored equipment systems is evaluated based on above methods. The evaluation results show that the methods based on D-S evidence theory are reasonable and feasible.