The Determinant of Budget Fiscal Deficit of the Palestinian Authority and the Economic Factors Affecting It

Abstract

A prolonged fiscal deficit is an inheriting problem for the Palestinian economy. This leaves the Palestinian authorities unable to pay for salaries and other needed money to spend on the infrastructure, education, health, and other services. The main aim of this study is to examine the relationship between the budget deficit and some indicators, gross domestic product, balance of trade, inflation rate, unemployment rate, and current account, using ordinary least square and ARMA methods for collected quarterly data for the years 2000-2018, and applying the data to a number of other tests such as unit roots test, Johansen cointegration test, normal distribution test, heteroskedasticity test, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey, variance inflation factors, etcetera, using Eviews10 program. The study’s main findings showed a long-run cointegration relationship between the budget deficit and the independent variables included in the study. The gross domestic product, balance of trade, and unemployment rate have a significant negative relationship with the budget deficit, while the remaining variables, inflation rate and current account, have a significant positive relationship with budget deficit.