How Do Inflation Rate, BI Rate, and Balance of Trade Directly Affect IDR to USD Exchange Rate and Indirectly Affect IDX Composite Index in Initial Stage of Covid-19 Outbreak?

Abstract

This study is trying to fill the research gap by understanding how several important financial variables interplay and affect the macroeconomic indicators, especially in developing country like Indonesia during the financial crisis period caused by the unexpected and sudden Covid-19 pandemic outbreak. The purpose of this research is to determine the direct effect of the inflation rate, Bank Indonesia (BI) rate, and Balance of Trade on the movement of Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) currency stability against US Dollar (USD) and indirect impact to the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Composite index in Indonesia during the initial stage of the pandemic outbreak. To achieve the research objectives, this study uses the Rupiah exchange rate against USD and IDX Composite index as the dependent variables, while the Inflation rate (CPI), BI rate, and Balance of Trade as the independent variables. The quantitative methodology is used in this research by applying linear and multiple simple regression techniques. The results of this research show that the Inflation rate, BI rate, and Balance of Trade were significantly affecting the Rupiah exchange rate against the USD, and it found that the most dominant variable in this model was the BI rate. The Inflation rate and Balance of Trade partially had no direct significant influence toward the movement of the Rupiah exchange rate against the USD during the critical anticipation period of Covid-19 pandemic outbreak. Furthermore, Rupiah exchange rate against the USD gave a significant influence toward the IDX Composite index.