Role of the Natural and Social Sciences in Cop21 Implementation: Success or Failure

Abstract

Hitherto, the natural sciences have furnished the essential informatio for the COP21 process, measuring the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) and modelling the impact upon global temparatures in different scenarios of CO2:s in the atomosphere. There is still uncertainty among scientists about how strong the global warming trend is as well as how many degrees of alternative temperature rise are likely and where on the Planet. Still some scientist came forward now and deny truth of the theory of climate. However, just as important that the natural sciences deliver unbiased data and a variety of predictions is the recogniton of the major tasks of the social sciences in the COP21 framework. The COP21 will be the biggest project ever undertaken in global governancem with a budget ceiing of 100 billion dollars every year in the first half of the 21rst cenury. Implementation theory predicts complexity, reversals and the strategic handling of information. Implementation success is in no way guaranteed as each government must act in a country specific situation. Will money be forthcoming in time as well as used efficiently? Is the Stern Super Fund the powerful tool promised to poor countries for new and innovative energy policies? The purpose here is to show that most countries have an increasing lin between GDP and GHC:s as well as that they are much dependent upon fossil fuels and wood coal.