Differential Effect on the Determinants of the Late Payments According to the Economic Cycle

Abstract

From 2004 to 2007, the Spanish financial system grew at a very rapid rate. However, from 2008 to 2012 impairment losses amounted equivalent to 25% of Spanish GDP.

The objective of this paper is investigate how have affected the main problems that have suffered the Spanish economy on the late payments on Spanish credit institutions. And to check whether the effect of these problems is different on stages of growth with respect to the stages of crisis.

The main results, according the test Chow, confirmed that there is a structural break in the model in 2007. Also the increase in unemployment increases the late payments   and this increase is greater in the stages of growth compared to the stages of recession. The decrease in the price of housing increases the late payments. The increase in equity decreases the late payments, in these two variables decrease is greater in the recession stages compared to the growth stages.