Testing Financial Contagion in Emerging Countries: Evidence From BRICS Countries

Abstract

This study uses a Multivariate Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model to examine the pure form of financial contagion in BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in the wake of two major international financial crises namely the U.S. sub-prime and Eurozone sovereign debt crises (EZDC). The pure form of contagion refers to the spread of shocks that are unrelated to macroeconomic fundamentals and are simply the product of irrational phenomena like panics, herd behaviour, loss of confidence, and risk aversion. To investigate contagion the present study analyses the pairwise dynamic cross-correlation between the US and Eurozone equity markets as ‘source’ (ground zero) markets and individual BRICS stock markets as ‘target’ markets.

For the each of the two crises that are examined the sets of data used, were divided into two sub-periods (1) the crisis period and (2) the stable period. For the Sub-prime crisis, the findings of the present study indicate the presence of cross-conditional volatility between the US and BRICS stock markets. The results also showed that the cross-conditional volatility coefficient is high in magnitude during periods of financial upheaval compared to a tranquil period, hence the conclusion that there was financial contagion during in BRICs stock markets (except in Chinese market) following the U.S. sub-prime crisis. As for the EZDC, equity markets in Brazil, India and China seemed to react equally (in both the ‘crisis’ and ‘post-crisis’ periods) from shocks emanating from European equity market. Hence the conclusion that there was no contagion in Brazil, India and China following the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis.